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Insights from our CIO
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![Michael Rosen]()
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CIO Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 35 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
RSS: CIO Blog | All Media
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![Land of Borat]()
20 Aug, 2015Land of Borat
I probably should not confess to enjoying Borat (full title:ÂBorat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan), 86 minutes of low-brow, sophomoric gags lest I ...
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![No Panic (Yet)]()
13 Aug, 2015No Panic (Yet)
Earlier this week, China devalued its currency 1.9% against the US dollar. On one level, this is not a big deal. China's currency has been appreciating considerably for many years (see Chart 1 for the ...
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![Criminals in Diapers]()
5 Aug, 2015Criminals in Diapers
Japan grew from the (literal) ashes of the Second World War to become the second largest economy in the world by creating products we all wanted. Some were revolutionary, like the Sony Walkman, some ...
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![Dry Hole]()
29 Jul, 2015Dry Hole
Southern California just had the wettest July on record, the Angels were rained out of a home game for the first time in 20 years, and we're all getting excited that a strong El NiÃo is ...
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![Hot Bidding]()
27 Jul, 2015Hot Bidding
The housing recovery, from its worst downturn since at least the 1930s, has been steady, but much less robust than most had expected. There are many explanations offered, from mean banks who have ...
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![Plunging]()
24 Jul, 2015Plunging
Commodity prices are in free fall. The Bloomberg Commodity Price Index (5-year chart below) is off about 30% in the last year. Gold is dropping toward $1,000/oz., and oil (WTI) is back below ...
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![Wild, Wild East]()
13 Jul, 2015Wild, Wild East
The central planners in Beijing have gotten so much right for the past three decades, that they might be forgiven for believing in their own infallibility. But it's one thing to shuffle resources ...
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![ÏÏÎ]()
6 Jul, 2015ÏÏÎ
I'm not sure why the pundits were predicting the Greeks would volunteer to walk meekly to their certain ruin, but the vote yesterday apparently surprised these experts. European equities are down 1 ...
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![2ND QUARTER 2015 - CLOSE HAUL]()
1 Jul, 20152ND QUARTER 2015 - CLOSE HAUL
Sailing has been an inextricable companion of human development and civilization. Artifacts over 7,000 years old contain pictures of sail boats, more than 2,000 years before the domestication of the horse, making sailing our first non-bipedal...
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![Puerto Pobre]()
30 Jun, 2015Puerto Pobre
An honest politician may be oxymoronic (or is just moronic?), or maybe it's the black swan that surprises us when seen. Either way, Alejandro Garcia Padilla, governor of the US Commonwealth of Puerto ...
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![Drama/Drachma]()
29 Jun, 2015Drama/Drachma
Here we go again, as Ronald Reagan used to say. Asian equities off 2-3%, Europe down 3-4%, Treasuries rallying, gold up. What's going on?The latest act of this tragedy was the imposition of capital ...
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![More on Rates...]()
26 Jun, 2015More on Rates...
A few days ago (Beginning's End) I suggested 2015 might turn out to be the worst year for bond investors in the past three decades. Here are some additional pictures (courtesy of Goldman Sachs) to ...
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![Beginning's End]()
23 Jun, 2015Beginning's End
In November 1942, with the Battle for Egypt under way, Winston Churchill addressed his nation with these words:Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the ...
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![Party Like It's 1999?]()
12 Jun, 2015Party Like It's 1999?
Some observers point to the eye-popping valuations for companies with little revenue (WhatsApp, e.g., bought by Facebook for $19 billion) as indicative of an equity market that is partying like it's ...
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![Angeles Wealth Commentary]()
11 Jun, 2015Angeles Wealth Commentary
A Secular Bull Market is generally defined as a long-term bullish trend consisting of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets or corrections. In a secular bull market, the corrections are often rapid and scary, but generally make higher lows...
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![June Gloom Will Fade]()
8 Jun, 2015June Gloom Will Fade
1024"June gloom" is what you get when a warming land mass meets a cooler ocean: a layer of marine fog that the sun burns off into afternoon haze. It is the weather pattern in Santa Monica for every ...
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![Yasou!]()
29 May, 2015Yasou!
Let me stipulate up-front: I love Greece. Everything about it: the food, the weather, the history, the music, the people. Everything.But I wouldn't lend them my money. Greece has a long (very long) ...
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![Long Term]()
26 May, 2015Long Term
In much of life, certainty dissipates with time. Weather forecasts are pretty accurate over the next 24 hours, a little better than a coin flip over the next week, and worthless a month from now. The ...
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![Don't Blame Nature]()
22 May, 2015Don't Blame Nature
Commodity prices rise and fall; no great insight there. Which is why most of us, mostly, take the fluctuations in stride. We (I) may get a little annoyed when the price of gasoline is a few cents ...
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![Distortion or Reflation?]()
21 May, 2015Distortion or Reflation?
A month ago, Germany could borrow for 10 years at a rate of 0.06%. Lenders were also happy that day to earn 0.47% for the next 30 years. That's $4,700 of annual interest for every $1 million. ...
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![Trade]()
7 May, 2015Trade
The trade deficit ballooned in March to over $51 billion, $8.6 billion more than a year ago. Exports were up a little, but imports surged, up more than $17 billion from February, the biggest monthly ...
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![Feliz Cinco de Mayo!]()
5 May, 2015Feliz Cinco de Mayo!
There will always be a debate about the relevance of history to current conditions. I am firmly in the pro-history camp, but am quick to acknowledge that historical analogies are always imperfect. ...
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![Skyscraping]()
4 May, 2015Skyscraping
In 2009, there were 19 buildings in the world with heights above 1,000 feet (305 meters for the non-American readers). Today there are 79 such buildings, a four-fold increase in just 5 years! And if ...
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![Wages]()
1 May, 2015Wages
They're going up. Total salaries and benefits moved up 4.4% in 2014, rising to 53.6% of GDP, still below historic averages, but a decided bounce off the lows recently seen (Chart 1).One reason wage ...
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