Housing Has Legs

Surprisingly strong housing numbers out this morning: new single-family homes rose 16.6% in April to an annual pace of 616,000 (see chart below), well above expectations, and up 23.8% over the past year. Supply of new homes fell to just 4.7 months, all due to faster sales (inventories were flat). Sales are up strongly in the Northeast, solidly in the South and West, although down in the Midwest. The median ($321,100) and average ($379,800) prices jumped 9.7% and 13.5%, respectively, the last year.

There is more to come. The graph below shows the data from 1963. We may never reach the 2005 peak of 1.328 million (or, maybe we will), but housing will continue to strengthen because job growth and wages are rising, and home ownership is still low. Housing has legs.

• 20 Nov, 2015

  Under My Thumb

  As Mick Jagger sang (screeched?) 50 years ago. The song was about turning the tables on a domineering woman (The girl ...

• 20 Jan, 2015

  Statistics

  Mark Twain wrote in his autobiography that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. How ...

• 21 Dec, 2016

  Shock, Part 4 (Divided We Are)

  We began this series with a review of the likely economic policies and their implications of the new Trump ...