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Insights from our CIO
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![Michael Rosen]()
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CIO Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 35 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
RSS: CIO Blog | All Media
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![Economics in Action]()
12 Jun, 2017Economics in Action
The intersection of supply and demand determines price and quantity: there is no more fundamental principle of economics (see graph below). We rarely see this principle in action because prices for ...
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![Job Growth is Falling. The Sky is Not.]()
2 Jun, 2017Job Growth is Falling. The Sky is Not.
Today's jobs report was disappointing: only 138,000 net new jobs created in May (the consensus had it pegged at 182,000), another 66,000 lost in revisions to the prior two months, the three-month ...
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![1ST QUARTER 2017 - THE LAST SHOGUN]()
8 May, 20171ST QUARTER 2017 - THE LAST SHOGUN
Japan has been ruled by the Yamato dynasty for nearly 2,700 years, the longest continuous monarchy in the world. From Jimmu to kihito, 125 emperors have held the Chrysanthemum Throne.
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![Hope and Reality]()
6 Apr, 2017Hope and Reality
Why is everyone so happy? Well, maybe not everyone, but a lot of people are as optimistic as theyve been in a long while. Start by looking at consumer confidence, as collated by the Conference Board ...
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![Chasing the Red Baron]()
31 Mar, 2017Chasing the Red Baron
You cant eat relative returns is an old aphorism. It sounds like it could come out of Poor Richards Almanac (Benjamin Franklin), and Im not really sure of its origin, but it means that we (investors) ...
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![Non-Zero Sum]()
17 Feb, 2017Non-Zero Sum
There are prominent voices (and tweets) urging us to pull back, dig in, and lock the gate. This rising chorus of nationalism and protectionism sees a dangerous world intent on our demise or ...
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![LOVE]()
14 Feb, 2017LOVE
Its probably no surprise to you that I see offering world-class investment advice as a valuable service for the long-term well-being of our clients. And while I think of investing as critically ...
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![4TH QUARTER 2016 - FINLAND STATION]()
25 Jan, 20174TH QUARTER 2016 - FINLAND STATION
After three years of war, and really, three centuries of Romanov repression, the Russian people had reached their breaking point. The TsarÃs army suffered defeat after defeat against the KaiserÃs superior...
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![Shock, Part 4 (Divided We Are)]()
21 Dec, 2016Shock, Part 4 (Divided We Are)
We began this series with a review of the likely economic policies and their implications of the new Trump administration, and discussed the long-term challenges investors face. We would have ...
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![Shock, Part 3 (The End of Pax Americana)]()
13 Dec, 2016Shock, Part 3 (The End of Pax Americana)
We are all trying to make sense of the election of Donald J. Trump to the presidency, and a few weeks ago I outlined the possible economic agenda and its consequences the administration may pursue ...
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![Shock, Part 2 (The Asset Allocator's Dilemma)]()
28 Nov, 2016Shock, Part 2 (The Asset Allocator's Dilemma)
In Shock (Part 1) (http://blog.angelesadvisors.com/2016/11/shock-part-1/), we looked at a possible Trump economic agenda and its consequences. A large increase in government spending, tax cuts and ...
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![Shock (Part 1)]()
22 Nov, 2016Shock (Part 1)
Shock, a sudden drop in blood flow, is a serious medical condition. Untreated, it can quickly be fatal. There are numerous types and causes of shock, including anaphylactic, an allergic reaction, ...
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![3RD QUARTER 2016 - CHANCELLORSVILLE]()
4 Nov, 20163RD QUARTER 2016 - CHANCELLORSVILLE
Abraham Lincoln suffered from clinical depression his whole life, but as 1862 drew to a close, even the most cheerful were likely to be losing faith in the Union cause. Virginia was turning from battlefield to graveyard for the Union armies.
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![What I Learned While Atoning]()
17 Oct, 2016What I Learned While Atoning
Twenty-four hours without food or drink is supposed to help focus the mind on the task at hand: atoning for the sins of the past year in hopes thatÂyour name is placed in the Book of Life for ...
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![Janet Yellen Is Your Friend]()
28 Sep, 2016Janet Yellen Is Your Friend
I have not met Janet Yellen, but she seems like a perfectly friendly person. Yet, for some reason, investors seem to panic whenever she hints that the Fed is discussing whether and when to lift ...
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![Give Us Your Poor]()
16 Sep, 2016Give Us Your Poor
A large percentage of energy expended at Angeles is in evaluating, analyzing and judging investment managers. It is a core competency at Angeles, and we think we're pretty good at it.In doing this ...
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![Falling Behind]()
25 Aug, 2016Falling Behind
It's good to be tall.Tall people tend to be more highly educated, earn more over their careers, are higher in the social pecking order, and live longer with better health.[Please don't complain to me ...
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![Negative Negative is Positive]()
22 Aug, 2016Negative Negative is Positive
Housing is a small part of the larger economic picture, contributing only about 5% to GDP (although includingÂall the ancillary and related services probably triples that number). Still, for most ...
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![2ND QUARTER 2016 - FISSION]()
26 Jul, 20162ND QUARTER 2016 - FISSION
University of Chicago is known for its excellent academics, not so much for its athletic prowess. But that wasnÃt always the case. One hundred years ago, the Maroons were the premier football...
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![Rupture]()
28 Jun, 2016Rupture
[nota bene: this is a long one; if you dont have time, just skip to the summary at the end. I promise, no hard feelings.]The political experts were remarkably accurate in last weeks UK referendum on ...
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![La Justice?]()
7 Jun, 2016La Justice?
I'm not French, and I'm not a lawyer. So I am certainly not a French lawyer. These facts may be obvious, but I state them as a possible explanation for my lack of understanding the (tortured) logic in ...
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![Floating Oil]()
24 May, 2016Floating Oil
Oil has had a nice recovery this year (see graph for Brent, YTD), up about 18% to over $48/barrel today. Of course, this is still well below the +$100/barrel we saw from 2011 through most of 2014, so ...
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![Housing Has Legs]()
24 May, 2016Housing Has Legs
Surprisingly strong housing numbers out this morning: new single-family homes rose 16.6% in April to an annual pace of 616,000 (see chart below), well above expectations, and up 23.8% over the past ...
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![Inside the Triangle]()
23 May, 2016Inside the Triangle
Complexity makes investing so challenging. Unlike the pure sciences, there are no hard truths in investing, no discoverable axioms that determine outcomes with 100% confidence. At best, we can speak ...
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